Trump’s plan for Western Sahara, according to a Swedish think tank

The Trump administration may be tempted to promote a new autonomy model based on genuine self-determination in Western Sahara

The Western Sahara issue is entering a decisive phase, marked by the growing U.S. interest in strategic resources and securing supply chains. Nearly twenty years after Morocco’s 2007 autonomy proposal, the absence of a concrete and operational framework undermines the credibility of this initiative in Washington’s eyes.

In an international context dominated by competition over critical minerals, the territory’s wealth—particularly in phosphates, rare earth elements, and strategic minerals—enhances its geopolitical importance. The United States, keen to ensure sustainable investments, appears increasingly unwilling to support a project lacking solid legal guarantees.

Faced with the current stalemate, Washington may be tempted to promote a new autonomy model based on genuine self-determination, including effective control over resources, independent institutions, and international guarantees. Such an approach would align more closely with Sahrawi demands and Algeria’s position.

In this context, Algeria emerges as an indispensable actor for any durable solution. Its diplomatic and regional role is now recognized as central by the United States.

For the Polisario Front and Sahrawi refugees, this development could represent a historic opportunity, especially since the movement has expressed conditional openness to autonomy validated through a referendum. Conversely, Morocco’s refusal to consider any option including independence weakens its position in an increasingly results-driven diplomatic environment.

Today, the Western Sahara issue goes beyond a decolonization dispute. It lies at the heart of resource, security, and international rivalry concerns, placing Washington before a strategic choice between maintaining the status quo and imposing a more binding settlement.