#United_Arab_Emirates #UAE #OPEC #OPEC+ #War_against_Iran
Abu Dhabi – April 28, 2026. – After nearly six decades of membership, the United Arab Emirates has announced it will withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, a move that could reshape the global energy landscape.
According to reports released Tuesday, the withdrawal will take effect next month. It comes amid surging global energy demand, which the UAE now aims to capitalize on following major investments in expanding its production capacity.
A strategic break
A member of OPEC since 1967, the Gulf state is seeking to free itself from the cartel’s production quotas in order to boost crude output. This decision reflects long-standing ambitions that were often constrained by the group’s coordinated production policies.
The UAE currently produces around 2.9 million barrels per day, significantly less than Saudi Arabia’s 9 million barrels per day, the de facto leader of the group.
For many analysts, this marks a turning point. Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial, described the move as “the beginning of the end of OPEC.” He noted that losing a member known for its strong compliance weakens the cartel’s credibility and influence, potentially stripping it of around 15% of its capacity.
A weakened cartel
The UAE’s departure comes at a time when OPEC is already grappling with internal tensions, particularly over uneven compliance with production quotas among its members. Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, said the move had been foreseeable.
She pointed out that Abu Dhabi’s push to expand production capacity often clashed with group-imposed limits, especially amid growing internal disagreements.
The exit leaves OPEC with 11 members, increasing the burden on Saudi Arabia to manage market stability. However, maintaining cohesion may prove difficult. “Saudi Arabia will have to shoulder most of the responsibility for enforcing compliance and managing the market,” Kavonic said.
A tense global backdrop
The announcement comes as energy markets are already under strain. The World Bank has warned of historic supply disruptions linked to conflicts in the Middle East and forecasts an average energy price increase of about 25% this year.
Economists are particularly concerned about the social consequences. Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, cautioned that the poorest populations—who spend the largest share of their income on food and fuel—will be hit hardest by rising prices.
Toward a new oil order?
Beyond its immediate impact, the UAE’s decision could set a precedent. David Oxley, an economist at Capital Economics, warned that the consequences could be significant if other member states follow suit, or if major producers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia respond by ramping up production.
For analysts, this development goes beyond economics. It signals a broader geopolitical shift in the Middle East and a potential reconfiguration of global oil markets.
One thing is clear: with the UAE’s departure, OPEC is entering uncharted territory, and its historic role as a market stabilizer may be fundamentally challenged.
