Iran-US War: Will the Americans soon run out of ammunition?

According to an analysis by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the first weeks of the conflict between Iran and the U.S.-led coalition reveal a major shift in modern warfare: victory no longer depends solely on military superiority, but on the ability to sustain operations over time.

In just 16 days, more than 11,000 munitions were expended, at an estimated cost of $26 billion. This unprecedented rate of consumption is placing significant strain on Western stockpiles, particularly for the most advanced weapons systems.

A war of industrial endurance

The study highlights that this intensity of fire far exceeds current production capacities. High-tech munitions—such as interceptors and cruise missiles—are being used at a pace that the defense industry struggles to match.

Some critical stockpiles could be depleted within weeks if this tempo continues. In certain cases, nearly half of specific U.S. missile inventories may already have been used in just two weeks, while replenishment could take several years.

The concept of “command of the reload”

RUSI introduces a key concept: “command of the reload,” referring to a nation’s ability to rapidly rebuild its arsenals. In this new paradigm, industrial endurance becomes a decisive factor, sometimes outweighing tactical success on the battlefield.

In other words, winning battles is no longer enough—forces must also be able to keep fighting.

A concerning economic imbalance

The analysis also points to a cost imbalance in modern warfare. Expensive systems, often costing millions of dollars, are sometimes used to neutralize far cheaper threats such as drones. This unfavorable cost-exchange ratio undermines the financial sustainability of the conflict.

Toward a redefinition of military power

Beyond the Iranian case, the study warns of a structural vulnerability in Western armed forces. As already observed in conflicts like Ukraine, high-intensity warfare requires a strong industrial base capable of rapid, large-scale production.

In conclusion, the war in Iran illustrates a profound strategic shift: military power is no longer measured solely by striking capability, but by the ability to endure.

Source : RUSI

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