As the October 31 deadline approaches—a key milestone when the United Nations Security Council must decide on the future of MINURSO—U.S. diplomacy is reviewing several options regarding the mission’s scope and presence. The UN operation, led by Russian diplomat Alexander Ivanko, had its mandate extended for one year under the resolution adopted on October 31, 2025.
Towards a Narrower Role or a Gradual Phase-Out?
According to information reported by Africa Intelligence, Donald Trump’s administration is primarily considering restricting MINURSO’s role to strictly monitoring armed clashes between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front. Such a shift would move the mission away from its original mandate, which provided for the organization of a referendum on self-determination. This approach also aligns with Washington’s broader drive to cut funding for UN peacekeeping operations: for the period running from July 2026 to June 2027, MINURSO has a budget of nearly $63 million, down from $71 million in the previous period.
Another scenario under review points toward a gradual phase-out of the mission. Several key positions have already been eliminated in recent months, notably within the Sahrawi refugee camps in Tindouf, eastern Algeria. However, the lack of significant diplomatic progress makes a complete shutdown unlikely in the short term.
Stalled Talks and the « Third Way » Option
This ongoing stalemate has fueled growing impatience in Washington, represented on this file by Massad Boulos, Special Advisor on Africa to the U.S. President. American officials express frustration over not having received a detailed written document from the Polisario Front outlining its concrete expectations regarding autonomy. Consequently, no new round of talks among the main parties—Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria, and Mauritania—has taken place since the sessions held in early 2026 in Madrid and Washington under the joint facilitation of Massad Boulos and Staffan de Mistura, the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General.
In an effort to break the deadlock, U.S. diplomacy turned toward alternative interlocutors. As revealed by Africa Intelligence, Washington promoted the Sahrawi Movement for Peace (MSP) over the summer—a political organization founded in 2020 and led by Hach Ahmed Bericalla, the Polisario’s former representative in Spain. The MSP advocates for a « third way » and shows openness to negotiating on the basis of the Moroccan autonomy plan. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz received an MSP delegation in New York on June 30, followed by meetings on July 28 in Laayoune between U.S. Embassy officials and movement representatives. Nevertheless, the MSP’s influence among Sahrawi refugees remains questionable, as the Polisario Front retains its status as the UN-recognized official representative.
Behind-the-Scenes Diplomacy
In the meantime, Staffan de Mistura has maintained active consultations across the region, traveling to Tindouf to meet Polisario leader Brahim Ghali, followed by visits to Algiers and Nouakchott, alongside engagements in New York with Moroccan officials. Furthermore, Massad Boulos and De Mistura met in Oslo with Andreas Motzfeldt Kravik, State Secretary at the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as the Norwegian capital was once considered a potential host for a new round of negotiations.
To support his diplomatic push, De Mistura appointed Christopher Thornton as his Head of Office in April 2026. Thornton, a consultant from the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, previously assisted British diplomacy in drafting aspects related to the Moroccan autonomy plan.
As highlighted by Africa Intelligence, the decisions taken by the Security Council at the end of October will shape not only MINURSO’s financial and operational framework, but also the broader trajectory of the peace process.
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