March 6, 2026 — Qatar’s energy minister has warned that a continuing conflict involving Iran could bring energy exports from the Gulf to a halt within weeks, potentially sending shockwaves through global markets.
Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who also serves as CEO of QatarEnergy, told the Financial Times that all energy exporters in the Gulf could soon declare force majeure if hostilities persist.
The warning comes as tensions escalate following Iranian retaliation against Gulf countries after attacks by Israel and the United States. Qatar halted its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production earlier this week, a move that could significantly disrupt global energy supplies.
Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG producers, accounting for roughly 20% of global supply. Its exports are critical in balancing demand in both Asian and European markets.
“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” Al-Kaabi said. “Everybody’s energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
Oil and Gas Prices Could Surge
According to Al-Kaabi, crude oil prices could climb to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if shipping is disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow passage is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, linking major Gulf oil producers to international markets.
Gas prices could also spike dramatically, with LNG potentially reaching $40 per million British thermal units, he added.
Global Economic Ripple Effects
Energy analysts have warned that prolonged disruptions in the Gulf could trigger a global economic slowdown. With much of the world dependent on Gulf oil and LNG supplies, extended shutdowns would likely lead to higher energy costs, industrial shortages, and manufacturing disruptions.
Even if hostilities ended immediately, Al-Kaabi cautioned that it would take weeks to months for Qatar’s LNG shipments to return to normal delivery cycles.
Expansion Plans at Risk
The conflict is also threatening major energy investment projects. Al-Kaabi said Qatar’s ambitious expansion of the North Field—expected to begin production in mid-2026—will likely be delayed if the war continues.
“It will delay all our expansion plans for sure,” he said, adding that the impact depends on how long the conflict lasts. A brief disruption may have minimal effects, but a war lasting several months would significantly alter project timelines.
The developments underscore the vulnerability of global energy supply chains to geopolitical tensions in the Gulf, a region that remains central to the world’s oil and gas markets.
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