For Russia, the Sahara issue has always been part of the broader geopolitical game on the international stage. It has also served as leverage for promoting Russian interests with both Morocco and Algeria, and as a means for Moscow to assert its influence in the region.
Tags : #Russia #Western_Sahara #Morocco #Security_Council
INTRODUCTION
• The developments surrounding the national issue over the past three years highlight the importance for Morocco to reassess its alliance strategy among the decisive powers within the United Nations Security Council.
• The composition of the Security Council and the nature of debates within it reflect a weakening of the dominance of the P3 (United States, France, and the United Kingdom) over the management of the Sahara issue, and a strong return of Russia and China.
• It is therefore important for the Kingdom to strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia.
• This strengthening should not be viewed as an alternative to strong relations with other permanent members (France / United States). Rather, it aims to complement these traditional alliances and diversify partnerships while taking into account changing international realities and the Kingdom’s supreme interests.
• Admittedly:
– Morocco does not share as many values with Russia as it does with its traditional allies.
– On a number of regional and international issues, Morocco’s position diverges from that of Russia (Syria, Iran, etc.).
• However:
– Russia is a key and unavoidable actor within the Security Council.
– Its perception of UN action is close to that of Morocco.
– It currently defends principles supported by Morocco.
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• In this context, it is necessary to analyze Russia’s position on this issue, identify the factors that motivate it, and explore ways to optimize it, notably through strengthening the partnership mechanisms linking the Kingdom and Russia.
THE SAHARA ISSUE
ELEMENTS OF RUSSIA’S POSITIONING ON THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE
- For Russia, the Sahara issue has always been part of the broader geopolitical game on the international stage. It has also served as leverage for promoting Russian interests with both Morocco and Algeria, and as a means for Moscow to assert its influence in the region.
- Although Russia has never been actively proactive on this issue, it has nevertheless always ensured the preservation of its influence.
- Chronological analysis of Russia’s position reveals three phases: from 1975 to 1998, from 2000 to 2006, and from 2007 to the present.
FROM 1975 TO 1998: IDEOLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR SELF-DETERMINATION
- Geopolitical considerations linked to the Cold War largely shaped the position of the Soviet Union on the Sahara issue during the 1970s. At that time, it was clearly a rivalry between Western and Eastern blocs. The USSR unconditionally supported countries within its “sphere of influence,” including Algeria and Libya due to their socialist orientation, and systematically opposed Western and American initiatives.
- In this context, the Sahara issue was perceived as a “satellite conflict.” Political support for Algeria’s position was evident. Military equipment and arms were mainly supplied through Gaddafi’s Libya, while training was provided by Cuba.
- The former USSR’s support for self-determination, both in the General Assembly and the Security Council, stemmed from its role as leader of the anti-colonial emancipation movement, with Algeria acting as a relay in Africa.
Nevertheless, Morocco’s moderate policy and its continuous pursuit of balanced foreign relations led Moscow to soften its stance and avoid excessive involvement at the expense of relations with Morocco.
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FROM 1998 TO 2006: SUPPORT FOR UN EFFORTS TOWARD A MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE POLITICAL SOLUTION
- The fall of the Berlin Wall, combined with the collapse of the USSR and the failure of the socialist model, resulted in Russia’s weakening.
- The bipolar world gave way to Western ideological, military, and economic supremacy led by the United States.
- Faced with fragile political and economic transition, Russia’s influence declined sharply within the United Nations, especially in the Security Council.
- At the UN General Assembly, resolutions on the Sahara were adopted without a vote, except in 2004 and 2006, when Russia voted in favor, despite Morocco’s call for abstention.
- In the Security Council, all resolutions were adopted by consensus except resolutions 1282 (1999) and 1301 (2000), which confirmed the impracticability of the settlement plan.
- In 2004, Russia introduced the wording “optimal political solution based on an agreement between the two parties,” limiting the primacy of Baker Plan II.
- Russia’s favorable votes during this period illustrate its apparent support for UN efforts to achieve a definitive, mutually acceptable political solution.
FROM 2007 TO THE PRESENT: POSITIVE NEUTRALITY AND SUPPORT FOR THE POLITICAL PROCESS
- Russia’s attitude during this period can be described as positive neutrality.
- In 2008, Russia played a crucial role in maintaining the parameters of UN involvement through MINURSO, opposing the inclusion of human rights references.
- This stance was strongly criticized by Costa Rica’s representative.
- In 2009, Russia reaffirmed its unchanged position, supporting a just, lasting, and mutually acceptable settlement based on Security Council resolutions and the consent of the parties.
18–25. Russia consistently emphasized respect for Chapter VI of the UN Charter, rejection of imposed solutions, opposition to politicizing human rights, and the maintenance of balance between the parties.
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DETERMINING FACTORS OF THE RUSSIAN POSITION
26–27. Cold War geopolitical considerations continue to influence Russia’s stance.
Balance Between Morocco and Algeria
28–32. Russia diversified its economic partners. Morocco became Russia’s leading trading partner in Africa and the Arab world, unlike Algeria, which competes with Russia in hydrocarbons. Freezing the Sahara conflict serves Russian interests.
The United Nations as the Preferred Framework
33–38. Russia relies on its veto power and permanent seat on the Security Council, insists on UN management of the issue, actively participates in MINURSO, and opposes expanding its mandate to human rights.
HOW TO OPTIMIZE RUSSIA’S POSITION
- Morocco should:
a) Renew and diversify its strategic partnership with Russia.
b) Involve Russia in projects in the Sahara (fisheries, energy, phosphates, tourism).
c) Strengthen consultation on African and Arab issues and spiritual security. - In return, Russia could ensure a freeze of the Sahara issue at the UN, allowing Morocco to consolidate irreversible facts affirming Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara.
